UK Data – Will NSW Liberal Backbenchers Finally Act with Honesty and Reason?

The latest Public Health England Covid Surveillance report makes two things clear. The vaccinated over-40s catch more SARS-CoV-2 than the unvaccinated over-40s do. And because of that, vaccine passports are pointless.

More importantly, because they catch more per 100,000, and there are more vaccinated people in those age groups in the UK, they contribute much more to absolute case numbers.

Boris Backs Down on Passports – Will NSW?

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has signalled that he will be cancelling the vaccine passport program for the upcoming northern winter. Whether that was driven by this data, or by squirming backbenchers worried about reelection is not clear. But it’s been coming for a while.

But with cases through the roof despite high vaccine numbers in the UK, what does this mean for NSW? Surely our backbenchers can start telling the Inner Cabinet of Imprisonment to back off?

This is just another overseas datapoint showing NSW Cabinet policy to be not merely uninformed and authoritarian, but obstinately so. Campaigners will make sure that everyone knows about this and all the other overseas examples, and do so well before the Federal (and State) elections.

I don’t know what polling is saying but this State will have at least a million baseball bats waiting for the next election.

Will NSW Liberals and Nationals finally do the right thing?

Not until Gladys, Hazzard and Elliott are gone. They are the faces of the illegitimate regime.

What Else is Clear?

Vaccines protect the elderly from death compared with being unvaccinated. But for people under 50 death rates from Covid-19 are so low that any protection is irrelevant in public policy terms. So we know it doesn’t stop infection, and that its effective protection from death is limited to…the highest risk cohort that was identified as such in March 2020 – the old and sick.

As for infections, because these data are rate per 100,000, the vaccinated are contributing much more in raw numbers to deaths than the unvaccinated (see Table 5). While the vaccine offers comparative protection from death for the elderly, it doesn’t stop a lot of older people from dying.

About 75% of all Covid-19 deaths in this period were vaccinated (1,756/2,356). This puts the undoubted comparative protection of the vaccine into contrast.

About 75% of all Covid-19 deaths in this period were vaccinated.

Given the data provided, there is clearer protection against hospitalisation across a full adult age range. The level of severity here is not obvious. It could include anything from one night for observation to graduation to ICU. But the data is strong.

There is a similar effect on raw numbers (Table 6 below). Because so many people >50 are vaccinated, they are driving the raw hospitalisation numbers, and represent 84% of over 80s hospitalisation, and 80% of 70-79 hospitalisations.

Also note that those larger young hospitalisations do not necessarily lead to deaths. A miniscule number of deaths are under 50 years old. So a side question is, should under 50s get vaccinated to lessen their relative risk of hospitalisation alone? And for people under 50, do they even realise the vaccine isn’t protecting them from death because they were never really at a substantial or unusual risk of it?

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